Good gamble or too risky? First some odds

To start off this is how you figure out the %chance of something occuring on 2D6. There are 36 possible combinations on 2D6. Here is a chart to show the different combinations.

2] 1 1  = 1

2 is the number, 1 1 is the only combination that can create that result and so that equals 1 possible combination of the 36 possible on 2D6

3] 1 2, 2 1 = 2
4] 1 3, 3 1, 2 2 = 3
5] 1 4, 4 1, 2 3, 3 2 = 4
6] 1 5, 5 1, 2 4, 4 2, 3 3 = 5
7] 1 6, 6 1, 2 5, 5 2, 3 4, 4 3 = 6
8] 2 6, 6 2, 3 5, 5 3, 4 4 = 5
9] 3 6, 6 3, 4 5, 5 4  =  4
10] 4 6, 6 4, 5 5 = 3
11] 5 6, 6 5 = 2
12] 6 6 = 1

  So we can see that needing to roll a heroic 2 to stay in HtH and then doing so only happens 1 time in 36, or the odds are 35 to 1 against that occuring. This happens to be less than a 3% chance so next time it happens to harm your chances of winning a game make sure to let your opponent know how luck they are!!! lol j/k. Things can go both ways and this could help or hurt you. I have seen people need to break from HtH to win, essentially having the game all wrapped up as long as they didn't roll a 2 on 2D6 and BAM! there it is. 40k is most assuredly gambling even if you are only betting on the outcome and no money is involved.

  The reason why I had to explain that was to present this scenario. I have had it occur twice expecting it and had it work out two different ways. One time the Raider survived and all was well in the GK storybook universe, the other time I was left with 2 DCA and the Inquisitors staring down 16 Grey Hunters. I won one game in big part because of this gamble and then lost another in big part because of it.

  Here is the situation a Land Raider Redeemer full of 10 Death Cult Assassins, Xenos with Rad and Psychotroke, and Inqusitor Coteaz advance into double dice Melta threat range of 2 squads of Grey Hunters with Melta, C-Melta. The Raider then pops smoke. What happens is that both times both squads advance and shoot the tank. Notice that these two forces are about the same number of VP and KP.

  At this point I would have a shiny picture or two showing this if I had any skill with the interwebz.

  Was it a mistake on my part or my opponents? I tend to think neither. If I made any mistake it was using such an expensive model without structure points(only 1 life for video game fans). My opponent shouldn't be faulted for taking such a risky play because ballsy play should be encouraged and assuming the GK player has long range firepower(not too cray cray of a thought) those rhinos are going to get wrecked before an unsmoked raider gets into walking melta threat range.

  The reason I didn't make a mistake is based on odds. The odds for destroying a AV 14 model by shooting two Melta Guns with 2D6 penetration are 40%. The approximate calculation is BS 4 is 66% to hit, needing a 7 to penetrate is 21 to 15, 21 to 15 translates to odds of 1.4 to 1 which is a little less than 60% chance, I think it is 58%. Just so you see what I am saying 1.5 to 1 is 60 to 40. Multiply the chance of hitting(66%) by the odds of penetrating(58%) and that would be 66 * .58 = 38% chance to penetrate. Half of all penetrating hits kill so since there are two Melta Guns it is about a 40% to kill and also a 20% chance to immobilize. Having two chances to try this cancels out with Smoke Launchers 4+ cover save. Now it is close to a coin flip to see who gets the shaft. If the Land Raider survives then the SW players has traded 4 KP and/or two scoring units for nothing, if he succeeds I will be in trouble and possibly giving up 3 KP Even if it blows up(2/3rds of the destroyed results are upgraded to Explosion! thanks to AP 1) and my guys take damage I should still be able kill one squad. The 1/3rd of the time it is simply destroyed my squad will get out and kill most of both Grey Hunter squads and hopefully swing Coteaz on one of the Rhinos.

  This is clearly a gamble that I will profit heavily from over time. It may favor me as much as 75 to 25 since I don't care if the Land Raider gets immobilized and only 2/3rds of the damaged results are disastrous for me. If I could do this as often as flipping a coin I would be generating quite a bit of profit over time. However this is simply an unnecessary risk. It would be far better to play in such a fashion that my opponent is in a lose/lose situation. Perhaps making sure I never enter into double dice Melta range instead making him shooting from 7-12 inches, fervently praying to the dice gods.

  So when it's tournament time I'll be there with my dearly loved Purifiers in Rhinos saying give me your best. The only thing I really care about is a Flame Storm cannon and I will always be able to shoot it up good before it shoots me. I'll skip the big game defining gambles for just the normal little ones... ya know like shooting someone a zillion times. :-D